Franklin County Ballot Odds

Franklin County, Washington · General Election · Tuesday, November 3, 2026

524,288 ways Tuesday can go

Our ballot has 19 contested races, and each one can go two ways. That makes 219 possible election nights, and every one of them is a leaf on the tree below. Your class has picked 87 of them. Everything else is a branch nobody has considered yet.

The tree of outcomes

Drawing 524,288 branches…

Each ring is one race: the surest bet sits at the center, the closest toss-up at the edge. Point at a ring or a white dot.

  • Gold glow: where the evidence points
  • White thread: one classmate's ballot
  • Pink: the ballot you're filling in
  • Faint: branches nobody picked

Fill in your ballot

Pick a winner in every race and watch your path light up the tree. Each percentage is our estimate of that candidate's chance to win, built from the August primary results, polls and past elections. Open “Evidence” on any race to see where it came from.

Chance it's perfect–
Expected correct–
Long shots picked–
Load:

Practice ballot To vote, completely fill in the oval next to your choice. Choose one in each race.

Where the class and the odds disagree

For each race, the gold dot is the favorite's chance of winning and the ring is the share of the class that picked that favorite. A long bar means the class is betting against the evidence.

Favorite's chance to winShare of class picking the favorite
0%50%100%
Gap

Every ballot in the class, ranked by its odds

Each dot is one classmate's ballot, placed by its chance of getting all 19 races right. Further right is better. Click a dot to load that ballot into the calculator.

A classmate's ballotPicked Democrats in all five D-vs-R races

Tiebreaker: how many will vote?

Each dot is one guess at the share of Washington's registered voters who will cast a ballot. Gray lines are the last three midterms; the gold band is the likely range this year.

How these odds were made

The recipe

  • Start with the August primary. Washington's top-two primary is a dress rehearsal. A candidate who led by 15 or more points in August almost always wins in November.
  • Check who already holds the seat. Sitting judges and justices almost never lose. The last Washington Supreme Court justice voted out was in 2010.
  • Read the polls, and who paid for them. Statewide measures have polls; a poll paid for by one side gets less weight.
  • Know the district. The 4th Congressional District voted for Trump by 21 points in 2024. The 14th Legislative District swings toward Democrats between August and November.

Fine print

  • Odds are estimates gathered from news reports, primary results, polls and campaign finance filings as of November 2, 2026. Some primary numbers are unofficial counts.
  • The calculator treats races as independent. In real life a good night for one party lifts its candidates everywhere at once, so a party sweep is somewhat more likely than the multiplication shows, but it is still a long shot.
  • Statewide measures and Supreme Court races are decided by voters across Washington, not just Franklin County.
  • These are estimates for a class contest, not official forecasts. An underdog with 10% wins 1 time in 10.